2025 M&A Recap: Consumer Products Rebounded Strongly-But the Luxury Retail Meltdown Just Rewrote the Rules for 2026

Last year I wrote that 2024 was setting the stage for a DTC boom in 2025. Well… the boom happened, but not exactly the way anyone scripted it.

2025 delivered a sharp rebound in overall M&A value (up roughly 40% globally per Bain), with consumer products and retail at the heart of the action. Premium, wellness, and functional brands commanded serious premiums. At the same time, the luxury department-store space imploded in spectacular fashion — and that collapse carries a loud warning for every consumer brand founder thinking about exit or growth in 2026.

2025: The Year of Portfolio Reshaping and a Brutal Reality Check in Luxury

Big strategic deals dominated the headlines. Kimberly-Clark’s $48.7 billion acquisition of Kenvue created a consumer-health giant. Keurig Dr Pepper’s ~$18–23 billion move on JDE Peet’s and Mars finally closing its multi-billion Kellanova deal showed the majors doubling down on scale in snacks, beverages, and wellness.

On the insurgent side, PepsiCo paid ~$2 billion for prebiotic soda darling Poppi, Celsius Holdings dropped $1.8 billion on Alani Nutrition, and Hershey scooped up clean-snack player LesserEvil — clear proof that functional, better-for-you, and digitally native brands still fetch top dollar when they bring loyal audiences and strong unit economics.

Retail consolidation told two very different stories.

Nordstrom successfully went fully private in May 2025 in a $6.25 billion all-cash deal led by the Nordstrom family and El Puerto de Liverpool. Smart move. Escaping Wall Street’s quarterly meat grinder gives them breathing room to lean into their hi-low luxury positioning.

Then there was the cautionary tale of the year: the Saks × Neiman Marcus “luxury powerhouse” experiment.

The $2.65–2.7 billion deal closed in late 2024, creating Saks Global under Hudson’s Bay Company’s umbrella. Barely 13 months later, Saks Global filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on January 13–14, 2026 — one of the fastest high-profile retail collapses in memory. Over-leveraged from day one, the combined entity quickly faced liquidity problems, massive vendor payment delays, and an unsustainable debt load. Stores remain open under $1.75 billion in debtor-in-possession financing, but major store closures and restructuring are already underway.

The collateral damage was immediate and painful. Hudson’s Bay Company — the original architect of the deal — filed for creditor protection in March 2025 and ultimately liquidated nearly all of its 355-year-old Canadian store base by mid-2025. A stunning end for a retail icon, triggered in large part by the strain and debt overhang from engineering the Saks-Neiman transaction.

What This Means for the Premium/Luxury Market — and Why It’s a Wake-Up Call

This isn’t just another retailer restructuring. It’s a seismic shift that forces every brand selling through luxury department stores to rethink distribution strategy immediately.

  • Brands that were heavily or exclusively anchored in Saks and Neiman Marcus now have a massive hole in their wholesale channel.
  • Oversaturation in those doors — which many saw as “prestige validation” — just became a liability.
  • Most critically, accounts receivable from Saks Global are now at real risk. Vendors are reporting delayed payments stretching back into 2025, payment plans, and in the worst cases significant write-downs or losses.

So where is all this displaced premium retail market share heading? Straight to more resilient players: Nordstrom, Macy’s, Bloomingdale’s — and even mass-market disruptors like Target. Premium brands are aggressively rethinking distribution. Levi’s just announced it’s expanding its denim into 150 additional Target stores by the end of 2026, bringing the total to over 1,000 locations. The message is clear: diversify or die.

This directly validates the deal thesis I’ve been hammering for years (and lived through with the Capezio transaction we closed with Argand Partners). Buyers in 2025–2026 are paying up for A-grade assets with diversified, resilient distribution. Pure DTC is table stakes, but so is controlled wholesale, retail partnerships, and international channels that aren’t dependent on any one fragile department-store group.

2026 Outlook: Wellness & Hybrid DTC Still Hot — Luxury Brands Must Diversify or Die

The Saks/Hudson’s Bay drama doesn’t kill the broader consumer rebound — it just makes the bar higher for premium and luxury plays.

Expect continued PE deployment and strategic acquisitions in:

  • Niche-dominant category leaders – i.e. dancewear brand Capezio (whose 2025 acquisition by Argand Partners just took home M&A Deal of the Year honors).
  • Health & wellness
  • Golf related brands
  • Functional beverages
  • Clean-label snacks
  • Pet care
  • Sustainability-focused CPG

Middle-market DTC and hybrid brands with strong data/AI capabilities, multichannel proof points, and tariff-resilient supply chains will remain highly attractive. Valuations for true A-assets should stay healthy.

But for luxury and premium fashion brands? 2026 will be the year of painful but necessary portfolio resets. Many will reduce exposure to the remaining department-store channel, accelerate their own DTC and retail expansion, and hunt for more stable wholesale partners.

My Advice for DTC, Legacy, and Premium Brand Founders Heading into 2026

If you’re preparing for a sale, growth capital round, or just want to sleep better at night:

  1. Audit your distribution concentration today. If Saks/Neiman (or any single retailer) represents more than 15-20% of revenue, start building alternatives yesterday.
  2. Build the financial story buyers actually want: clean EBITDA, multichannel traction, recurring revenue signals, and proof you can survive a major partner’s bankruptcy without capsizing.
  3. If you’re still a B or C asset on distribution or unit economics — fix it now. The market has zero patience for single-channel dependence after what just happened in luxury.

The 2025 playbook that worked: be premium, be purposeful, be multichannel. The brands that ignored the last part just got a very expensive lesson.

My Capezio transaction with Argand Partners was a front-row seat to exactly this shift — we positioned the brand with balanced distribution and strong fundamentals, and the market rewarded it.

If you’re a DTC or consumer brand founder thinking about your next move in 2026, let’s talk. The window for building (or fixing) an A-grade, exit-ready business is wide open — but only for those willing to adapt to the new reality.

Drop me a note at jeremiah@growthmindsetadvisors.com or book a quick call via the site. Happy to share what’s actually moving the needle with buyers right now.

Here’s to building businesses that last through the next shake-up.

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